For almost 20 years before resigning in May 2015, Dr. Friedman was CEO and then chairman of Stratfor, a company he founded in 1996. Panama The Thucydides Trap leads us to believe a U.S.-China war is inevitable. You can draw upon the PPT slides as well, but do not simply copy them. South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands This problem is compounded by the current lack of a common enemy—it was the Soviet Union in the 1970s and both were united against terrorism in the 2000s—and exacerbated by slowing global growth. Suriname In recent years a slow-brewing conflict has broken out between the US and China over technology, in a rivalry that has all the hallmarks of a “Thucydides Trap”. But the United States has even more devastating options. It has an economic superiority, a geographic superiority, a political superiority in alliances, and a superiority of experience not only at sea but in air and space. Montenegro The two countries’ strongest trading and economic interdependence has proven unable to prevent a political standoff between Washington and Beijing. The likely result of this competition was identified by the great historian Thucydides, who wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” China's Peaceful Rise and the Thucydides Trap China first proposed a “peaceful rise” as early as by the end of 2003. He analysed the reasons around it and came to the conclusion that if a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power it could lead to war. Cuba Seychelles Sao Tome and Principe Somalia More than perhaps any country in the world, China cannot risk a breakdown in the global trading system. Curacao The South China Sea is therefore a frontier of particular interest for Beijing. Samoa (Independent) I write about Chinese political economy, capital markets and investments. China lacks that. Peru Are China and the US going to be able to escape Thucydides’ Trap? His books have been translated into more than 20 languages. Venezuela USA Minor Outlying Islands Doing so might hurt the U.S. but not existentially. In this sense China is secure. Papua New Guinea Philippines Germany Saint Kitts and Nevis Benin The choice of the word “escape” instead of “avoid” is interesting as it suggests that the U.S. and China are well down a ruinous path to conflict. Open lines of communication must be maintained—it was disconcerting to learn, anecdotally, that there are few bilateral working groups across all levels of government, down from around 60 just three years ago. Ethiopia Bermuda Japan Singapore Tuvalu Does the rise of China mean an end to US supremacy and a risk of major war? To access the ocean, China must control the sea lanes through at least one (and preferably more) outlet. It suggests that a war is likely to happen when an emerging power, say, a ranked number 2 power (#2), threatens to displace an existing hegemon (#1). He is certainly correct if by rising he means it has surged since Mao Zedong died. Thucydides was a fifth century BC Greek philosopher. Micronesia, Federated States of Echoes of the trap, while resplendent in most domains and areas of the relationship between the two also came when the United States sent two warships through the Taiwan Strait in the first such operation this year. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. But what is also alarming is that between China and Australia. Ecuador Bosnia and Herzegovina The latter is more ambiguous, but centers around collective effort, socialism, prosperity and national glory. Bahrain Is China rising or risen? Just go to Google News and type in “Thucydides Trap” and you’ll find that it is mentioned at least weekly in one article on US-China relations or another. Athens’ rise was a necessary but insufficient condition for war; human emotion played an essential part, too. Mayotte by Author(s): Robert B. Zoellick. Czech Republic The likely result of this competition was identified by the great historian Thucydides, who wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Greenland Falkland Islands If both countries have fallen into the trap already, going by the ongoing trade conflict and signs that other fronts—from trade and technology to human rights and capital—will open up, one way forward is a fuller reading of The History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides. In essay form, describe the economics of China’s Rise, the logic of the “”Thucydides Trap,”” and the strategies of Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping. Myanmar Israel Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. I have held senior management and investment positions, advisory and board roles and am now an academic and researcher. Yemen In the Thucydides trap metaphor, China is Athens and America is Sparta. As China emerged as a major economic and political power, however, there has been increasing concern regarding the role it plays in international trade and affairs over the last decade. Cambodia The problem is a possible clash between American exceptionalism and the “China Dream.” The former is defined by freedom, individualism, democracy and the idea that the U.S. has a (missionary) mission to transform the world. Maldives Palau Kenya Mauritania Malawi But he is implying more: that China is rising to the point that it can even challenge the United States. Nigeria This misuse of the concept is quite sad, because Thucydides actually does have a very useful story to tell policy-makers in the United States. Ghana Iceland China has no tradition of naval warfare to compare to its experience on land. David Yu Contributor. Iran Thucydides trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. Guam A perilous trap but uncertain outcome Today, an irresistible rising China is on course to collide with an immovable America. Paraguay Angola Trinidad and Tobago Anything that could reduce China’s economy for the long term by about 20 percent is a desperate vulnerability. United Kingdom Latvia And China Escape The Thucydides Trap? Gupta cites an article in the South China Morning Post by journalist Alex Lo, who said that the two countries were actually caught in a ‘Thucydides trap’. Engineering is part of war but not its essence. In the U.S. military, I have noted people rolling their eyes when they hear about the superweapons being produced. Bangladesh Aruba On the contrary, both countries’ leaderships realize what is at stake, and neither ultimately wants to derail the mutually beneficial economic relationship that forms the foundation of their economies. My book "Aircraft Valuation: Airplane Investments as an Asset Class" was recently released by Palgrave Macmillan. Jacek Bartosiak, who wrote of the Thucydides trap for us last week, is never simplistic, but I think he is wrong in some respects. The Chinese have to force the U.S. into deep retreat to secure access. Argentina China must have access to global markets, which depends overwhelmingly on the ports of its east coast. It has no ground force it could lend to China, nor does it have a naval force that would be decisive in its Pacific operations. Hypothetically, China could forge an alliance with Russia, a nearby power with which it shares some common competitors. Comoros Libya So if that sentence from Thucydides is correct, then China is clearly a rising power that will want her “place in the sun” — which will lead ineluctably to a collision between rising China (Athens) instigated by the presumably setting U.S. (Sparta), which will see military preemption as the only recourse to avert a loss of power and a Chinese-dominated world. Switzerland Guatemala Antarctica All rights reserved. Belize Greek historian Thucydides wrote about the Peloponnesian war. Lithuania Thucydides’ concerns were recently echoed by Graham Allison in his book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Sweden Bahamas But for China, if international trade collapsed, internal declines in consumption would come on top of the loss of foreign markets. South Africa Oman If there is a “Thucydides Trap,” it is the trap of hubris, which great powers fall into over and over again. United Arab Emirates He analysed the reasons around it and came to the conclusion that if a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power it could lead to war. His most recent book, THE STORM BEFORE THE CALM: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, published February 25, 2020 describes how “the United States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been.” The decade 2020-2030 is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture. I am the only Senior ISTAT Aviation Appraiser in N. Asia and China. Equatorial Guinea The controversial “Thucydides trap” argument has sparked a heated debate since 2013, when President Xi Jinping of China told a cluster of western guests: “We must all work together to avoid Thucydides’ trap.” Later, this concept was elucidated by Professor Graham Allison in his articles, talks and famous book Destined for War: Can America and […] Trump’s anti-China rhetoric and actions, including crossing out the prefix “Corona” and replacing it with “China,” are part of a continuation of US empire building that began long before Trump seized power in the Electoral College coup of 2016. The question for any military is not what equipment it has but how long it takes to jury-rig the breakdown. United States of America On Tuesday, President Trump shifted from praising China’s response to COVID-19 to speaking of the ‘Chinese virus’. The U.S. should re-think its turn towards a go-it-alone approach, while China must step up. Jamaica Mexico But is a 2,400-year-old school of thought really what the U.S. should base its foreign policy on? Slovenia As China increases its global commitments, it should embrace transparency, articulate its intentions clearly and ensure that its words and actions are consistent. Spain Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Dr. Friedman is also a New York Times bestselling author. Antigua And Barbuda Arguably, it was fear, pride and honor that sparked and fanned the flames of war. George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. China has appeared anxious to avoid the problem, and the government-run Xinhua news agency has published numerous articles on averting the Thucydides Trap in recent years. The Thucydides Trap tells exactly of this danger: A rising power like China, eager to assert itself at the expense of a ruling power like America, precipitates a conflict between the two. The U.S. can’t invade mainland China or conquer it. Cameroon Mini Teaser: How can Washington and Beijing avoid typical patterns of distrust and fear? Adding to China’s strategic problems is that it borders some countries such as Vietnam and India that are hostile to its interests. Moldova, Republic of Saint Martin Country Kuwait Indonesia Virgin Islands (British) Greek historian Thucydides wrote about the Peloponnesian war. The USA and China are now entangled in the Thucydides Trap; this is the entire story. And that possibility is there. According to Allison, the Thucydides Trap’s formation depends on two factors: “the rising power [China]’s growing entitlement, sense of its own importance, and demand for greater say and sway, on the one hand, and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this engenders in the established power [United States] on the other.” The "Thucydides Trap" appears to have a searing resonance in the relations between the United States and China with the former being the incumbent power and the latter a rising one. Madagascar Northern Mariana Islands I travel extensively and have worked in 10 countries and have been based in China for the last 10 years. Thucydides’ concerns were recently echoed by Graham Allison in his book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Brazil I write about cross … The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. El Salvador In truth, what Thucydides said about democracies and oppressive regimes was far more sophisticated and complex than a simplistic slogan invoked by defeatists. Burkina Faso Morocco His most popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its predictions. Blacklist, Freezer Rush Helps Drive Copper Towards A Record $10,000 A Ton, China Urges U.S. To Stop Bullying With Blacklist, Vows To Take Action, China Has A $15 Trillion Problem With Economic Reality, Trump Signs Bill That Could Delist Chinese Companies From U.S. Stock Exchanges, Singapore To Open For Business Travel In January Under ‘Bubble’ Arrangement, Iron Ore Rockets To $160 A Ton And China Cries Foul, Hyundai Buys Boston Dynamics From SoftBank In $1.1 Billion Deal. Thailand In the wake of China returning a seized U.S. drone, I can tell you that virtually everyone in U.S.-Chinese relations has a similar dread about Trump's tweet-based “policy” toward China. Sudan People fret about a "Thucydides Trap" of inevitable conflict between China and the United States. Sri Lanka Turks and Caicos Islands © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. Nepal Egypt In such a situation, … Tokelau South Sudan Eritrea Serbia Afghanistan Palestine Guinea-Bissau Kazakhstan And like all great philosophers, he has many things to teach us, even if his teaching is inappropriately applied. Faroe Islands Timor-Leste French Southern Territories This misuse of the concept is quite sad, because Thucydides actually does have a very useful story to tell policy-makers in the United States. China’s fear is maritime – isolation from world markets. 2-3 pages single spaced. In 2017, Professor Graham Allison from Harvard University published the book "Destined For War," where he wrote about how China and the U.S. could be heading toward a collision course. The United States has been in combat frequently, launching aircraft against land targets, conducting active anti-submarine searches and coordinating air defense systems for large fleets in combat conditions. Estonia And so Jacek and I will continue to duel. Are the U.S. and China headed there? As tensions between the US and China rose in 2018, so did discussion of Thucydides’s trap. Hungary Finland The U.S.-China 'Thucydides Trap': A View from Beijing by Mo Shengkai Chen Yue “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.” —Thucydides Trump’s anti-China rhetoric and actions, including crossing out the prefix “Corona” and replacing it with “China,” are part of a continuation of US empire building that began long before Trump seized power in the Electoral College coup of 2016. Grenada Malta Similarly, there is no reason to believe that Trump desires military conflict with China. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear … Wars are won by experienced staff, brave and motivated forces, and factories that don’t screw up. If the U.S. simply bought fewer Chinese products, Washington would damage China without firing a shot. The U.S. Navy controls the Pacific from the Aleutians to Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia, giving Washington an old and sophisticated alliance system that China cannot match. Cayman Islands The fear might be wholly justified, or it might not be justified at all (or somewhere in between). Vietnam You may opt-out by. Hong Kong Azerbaijan There’s also the problems of reliable information and accurate interpretation. Aaland Islands Swaziland Uzbekistan Vanuatu While there have been flash points in the 40-year relationship—such as the Kosovo embassy bombing in 1999 and the Hainan Incident in 2001—there was little, on the surface, to presage the sharp deterioration in ties from 2018. Mongolia The “Thucydides trap” refers to the theory that when a rising power threatens a ruling power, the result is often war. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. New Caledonia Thucydides, being a historian, used ‘inevitable’ in hindsight. Maybe that’s true. The error is the idea that China is a rising power. As tensions between the US and China rose in 2018, so did discussion of Thucydides’s trap. Bulgaria Yes, China has grown, but its growth has made it a hostage to its foreign customers. Pakistan Montserrat The argument that the U.S. may overreact is based on this error. According to Allison, the Thucydides Trap’s formation depends on two factors: “the rising power [China]’s growing entitlement, sense of its own importance, and demand for greater say and sway, on the one hand, and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this engenders in the established power [United States] on the other.” Gupta cites an article in the South China Morning Post by journalist Alex Lo, who said that the two countries were actually caught in a ‘Thucydides trap’. We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to his documentation of the Peloponnesian War, but we often forget that he was also a philosopher. Zambia CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES ARE HEADING TOWARD A WAR NEITHER WANTS. Graham Allison’s “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” (2017) may have a destiny as century’s reference. Tanzania And tradition and lessons passed down from generation to generation of admirals are extremely valuable. Guyana Georgia Russia Jordan It cannot expose its forces to massive Chinese ground forces. Guinea India The illogic of offensive realism China should avoid the Thucydides trap with India Modi is facing a lot of opposition for not being transparent about the actual situation at the border K S Venkatachalam June 30, 2020 Romania Pitcairn Djibouti While we've recognized these pitfalls for a long time, we now have an official term for at least one of them. If China is a rising power, it is rising on a very slippery slope without recourse to warfare. It’s true that China is a rising power, but as I said, it’s rising from the Maoist era. Thucydides trap is really a clear and analogous concept to explain why the USA has been trying to obstruct the emergence of China as a rising power in the international system. China, the United States and the Thucydides Trap By J Brooks Spector • 26 May 2020 Illustrative image | sources: President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. In four of Allison’s 16 case studies from the last 500 years, statesmanship stopped the trap from springing. Guernsey Toll Free: 1-888-982-8217 Cook Islands Norfolk Island If the US and China come to blows, it is likely that they will have failed to learn Thucydides’ timeless teachings about the arrogance of power. Albania Gabon The United States does not need to control these lanes; it just needs to deny them to China. security, financial stability) or risk the collapse of the system which enabled its rise. If only one of China’s littoral nations allied with it, China’s strategic problem might be solved. Slovakia Gibraltar British Indian Ocean Territory But the policy couldn't stop China from getting established as a dominant power who can pose threat on the unipolar world order controlled by the United States of America. He believed it was the threat, the Spartans felt with the rise of Athens that lead to the two city-states clashing swords. Vatican City State (Holy See) Are China and the US going to be able to escape Thucydides’ Trap? U.S. President Donald Trump (L) shakes hands with China's President Xi Jinping. The Thucydides Trap leads us to believe a U.S.-China war is inevitable. The basic concept is that, when a rising power is observed by an existing great power, the existing great power becomes fearful. But war isn’t inevitable, until it is. Jersey (Channel Islands) It’s on this point that I disagree with Jacek. Uganda But this is one of the great defects of military analysis: counting the hardware. France Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge. Rwanda China should avoid the Thucydides trap with India Modi is facing a lot of opposition for not being transparent about the actual situation at the border K S Venkatachalam June 30, 2020 Copyright © 2020 Geopolitical Futures. Global multilateral organizations should also be strengthened, while issues like climate change should be focused on as rallying points. China's Peaceful Rise and the Thucydides Trap China first proposed a “peaceful rise” as early as by the end of 2003. Thucydides Trap; Trump China policy; U.S.-China Competition; U.S.-China conflict; U.S.-China Relations; Xi foreign policy; Xi Jinping; COVID-19 In Asia C. … Puerto Rico Liberia Belarus Uruguay Sierra Leone Thucydides was a fifth century BC Greek philosopher. Italy U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) meet in Hamburg, Germany in July 2017. Democratic Republic of the Congo Saudi Arabia Wallis and Futuna Islands Saint Lucia The closer you are to weapons development, the more you are aware of its shortcomings. North Korea As it has been already noted, China will fall into the Thucydides trap due to the awareness that the U.S. has made up its mind to firmly resist China’s rise out of the fear or uncertainty about the future. But is a 2,400-year-old school of thought really what the U.S. should base its foreign policy on? The United States has no interest in a war in the Western Pacific. The difference is massive. In essay form, describe the economics of China’s Rise, the logic of the “”Thucydides Trap,”” and the strategies of Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping. Colombia Brunei Darussalam Bolivia The failure to recruit allies is an indicator of the regional appreciation of Chinese power and trustworthiness. But what is also alarming is that between China and Australia. Denmark Macedonia Tonga Basically, the Thucydides Trap says that as a rising power challenges the dominance of an established power, that dominant power is likely to respond with violence. The U.S.-China 'Thucydides Trap': A View from Beijing by Mo Shengkai Chen Yue “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.” —Thucydides But a hot war is not automatic. As China emerged as a major economic and political power, however, there has been increasing concern regarding the role it plays in international trade and affairs over the last decade. Anguilla Andorra U.S., China and Thucydides. The problem is that Russia’s focus must be on its west and on the Caucasus. EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights, China Launches Anti-Monopoly Investigation Into Alibaba, Russian Billionaire Mordashov Exits Gold Race With A Handy Profit, Hong Kong Billionaire Li Ka-Shing’s Business Falsely Linked To U.S. History is littered with examples of things that seemed like good ideas at the time, but that turned out to be disastrous. Allison’s Thucydides trap has set the political scaffolding of the tense global geopolitical competition between China and the US. Belgium For all its hardware and technology, it has not fought a naval battle since 1895 (which it lost). The Truth About the U.S.-China Thucydides Trap George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures July 17, 2020 We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to … If Charles Kindleberger, an architect of the Marshall Plan, is correct, as China grows, it must provide a larger share of global public goods (e.g. But he is implying more: that China is rising … The military problem is simple. Armenia I write about cross-border investing and financing, aviation and PE/VC. Under these circumstances, the idea of initiating a war is farfetched. Dominican Republic American Samoa Senegal Gambia Luxembourg China, the United States and the Thucydides Trap By J Brooks Spector • 26 May 2020 Illustrative image | sources: President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping. Cote D'Ivoire But the policy couldn't stop China from getting established as a dominant power who can pose threat on the unipolar world order controlled by the United States of America. Are the U.S. and China headed there? Macau Haiti COVID-19 is the latest in a series of factors that are dissolving common interests, worsening strategic stresses, and pushing America and China into what Allison calls the ‘Thucydides trap’. The term ‘Thucydides trap’, coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison, refers to a situation when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power. China U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) meet in Hamburg, Germany in July 2017. Mozambique Australia New Zealand Namibia Isle of Man Tunisia Croatia Canada International Callers: 1-512-687-3444. Ireland Mali There is of course evidence of advanced Chinese systems being prepared and claims that the U.S. is losing its relative share of power. Dr. Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media. The term ‘Thucydides Trap’ has become a hot topic after American political scientist Graham T. Allison published his book ‘Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?’ in 2017. So if that sentence from Thucydides is correct, then China is clearly a rising power that will want her “place in the sun” — which will lead ineluctably to a collision between rising China (Athens) instigated by the presumably setting U.S. (Sparta), which will see military preemption as the only recourse to avert a loss of power and a Chinese-dominated world. Friedman received his bachelor’s degree from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University. Costa Rica Cyprus Liechtenstein Burundi Congo Chad Christmas Island The United States is not giving up the Pacific – it fought wars in Korea and Vietnam as well as World War II to keep it. Mauritius Lao People's Democratic Republic Botswana Syria Niger So I think the Thucydides concept, while valid, doesn’t apply to this case. What has been unfolding between China and the U.S. clearly indicates that it is the U.S. that has been actively creating a Thucydides Trap for the two countries' relations. St. Pierre and Miquelon A simultaneous strike westward by Russia and eastward by China is superficially interesting, but it would not divide U.S. and allied forces enough to take the pressure off of China. Greece St. Helena The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. If the US and China come to blows, it is likely that they will have failed to learn Thucydides’ timeless teachings about the arrogance of power. Thucydides’s Trap teaches us that on the historical record, war is more likely than not. Jacek Bartosiak, who wrote of the Thucydides trap for us last week, is never simplistic, but I think he is wrong in some respects. Virgin Islands (U.S.) Bouvet Island Fiji South Korea Republic of Kosovo
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